Hey there! Scotland’s job news is kinda good, I think. The unemployment rate went just a little down, like a tiny drop! That’s a bright spot, maybe, in a confusing economy world.
I saw new numbers from the ONS, they said. From July to September, the rate was 3.7%. That’s a small drop, only 0.1 percentage points. The rest of the UK? Their rate went up to 5% at the same time. Not so good for them!
My comfort is what these Scottish numbers give, but the whole picture is still complex. ONS estimates say 101,000 people over 16 in Scotland were looking for work. About 2.7 million people did have jobs. Though the employment rate for people 16 to 64 years old stood at 74.3%. It a decrease was of 0.7% from before, and below the average for the UK.
More people are economically inactive, which is confusing me. That means they’re not working but not looking either. Seven hundred seventy-four thousand people, 16 to 64 years old, were inactive now. An increase of 0.8% it was. Long-term sick people, full-time students, and people caring for family, they are in that group.
Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, she spoke. Economic “headwinds” are what she acknowledged. But she said Scotland is strong, relatively speaking. “Scotland continues to have a lower unemployment rate than the UK,” Forbes told us. She further explained the government is working to get jobs and investment in Scotland. Yet, she asserted most of the power to grow the economy the UK Parliament has, not them. Forbes wants the Chancellor to focus on growth in the budget coming up. She really wants them to stop raising the employer’s National Insurance money.
Pat McFadden is the Labour Work and Pensions Secretary. He spoke about the UK figures. He said they made progress getting people into work. “Over 329,000 more people have moved into work this year already, but today’s figures are exactly why we’re stepping up our plan,” McFadden said, his words.
The ONS numbers, though, people are not sure about them. ONS says their figures are not full-status accredited. This is because of sampling weaknesses. It’s better than earlier this year, but we should not compare it directly with 2023 and 2024. The Labour Force Survey was almost 76,000 people across the UK. Scotland’s sample is smaller, so it is less dependable.
The better figures are from HMRC, they are limited. These figures only count those whose tax is deducted from pay. Self-employed people are left out. HMRC data shows a drop of 16,000, or 0.6%, in Scotland’s payrolled employees up to October.
But wait, even with less payrolled people, HMRC data tells us something good! Scottish payrolled workers got an average increase of 3.6% in pay from last October. That is more than the 3.1% increase the UK as a whole saw. This means less people on payrolls maybe, but the people who do have jobs are getting paid more faster than others in the UK.
The ONS and HMRC data shows discrepancies; it’s an unclear picture. ONS suggests less unemployment. HMRC data suggests fewer people on payrolls. This shows how complicated the Scottish job market is. It also shows the problem with leaving out self-employed people in HMRC data. The true health of the job market in Scotland is a question still. It needs more than one way to look at data and be careful when you read the numbers.
The next months are important. Is this small dip a real recovery start, or just a little up and down in a hard time? The Autumn Budget, like Forbes said, will play a big part in what happens next for Scotland’s economy and its jobs.
